Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody [Unabridged] [Audible Audio Edition]
Author: | Language: English | ISBN: B00J08EN56 | Format: PDF, EPUB
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A practical guide to outguessing everything from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life.
Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.
Download latest books on mediafire and other links compilation Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody
- Audible Audio Edition
- Listening Length: 7 hours and 59 minutes
- Program Type: Audiobook
- Version: Unabridged
- Publisher: Audible Studios
- Audible.com Release Date: June 3, 2014
- Whispersync for Voice: Ready
- Language: English
- ASIN: B00J08EN56
Although I am engineer and read a fair number of science books, this is the first time I have ever come across this topic which is a cross between number theory and behavioral economics. I found it very illuminating and well presented and not at all disorganized as the previous reviewer states. And I don't think a book should get a one star merely because another book covered the material well. The value of a book is how much the reader benefited from it.
I am very intrigued by the topic as it brings together, game theory, number theory, and probability theory. Well done. Like it.
Charan Langton complextoreal.com
Added: I went back and looked at "machines that think" just out of curiosity. This is a book about history of artificial intelligence and in particular about the progress made in AI at a particular place (Dartmouth) and time (70's). The comparison is quite not appropriate. Now AI is a huge topic, far bigger than what this book is attempting to cover and describe that is the human biases and tendencies towards certain numbers particularly in light thresholds and constraints. When humans cheat they cheat in predictable ways, very much along what Dan Arielly talks about in his very excellent book "Predictably Irrational".
The book discusses the Benford's Law, also called the First-Digit Law, which is the frequency distribution of digits in real data such as financial, tax returns, etc. In this distribution, the number 1 occurs as the leading digit about 30% of the time, while larger numbers occur in that position less frequently: 9 as the first digit less than 5% of the time. This law can be used to determine if the data being examined has been faked which tends to deviate from this distribution significantly.
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